True Count to EV Converter — Proportional Kelly Bet Sizing
Convert running count and shoe depletion into exact True Count. Calculate real-time player expected value (EV) and proportional Kelly bet ramp allocations.
Kelly Allocation Comparison
Frequently Answered Questions
How does True Count conversion alter player advantage? ▼
In multi-deck shoes, each unit of positive True Count shifts the mathematical expectation approximately +0.50% in the player's favor. At TC +1 the game breaks even, and at TC +3 the player holds an approximate +1.0% advantage.
Why is Half-Kelly recommended over Full-Kelly? ▼
Full-Kelly betting generates extreme bankroll volatility with a 13.5% lifetime Risk of Ruin. Half-Kelly captures 75% of maximum geometric growth while slashing variance by 50% and compressing ruin risk below 1.8%.
Why should players spread to two hands at peak True Counts? ▼
Because adjacent hands against the same dealer upcard share a covariance of r ≈ 0.50. Wagering 75% of the target bet on two separate spots increases hourly dollar earnings by 33% without increasing total risk.
The count-to-edge relationship is a model assumption. Online shuffling can remove the information a count needs. A positive model edge does not guarantee a profit.
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