STOCHASTIC CALIBRATION // ADVANTAGE PLAY

True Count to EV Converter — Proportional Kelly Bet Sizing

Convert running count and shoe depletion into exact True Count. Calculate real-time player expected value (EV) and proportional Kelly bet ramp allocations.

SHOE & COUNT PARAMETERS THORP-GRIFFIN MODEL

Running Count (RC) +6

Decks Remaining in Shoe 3.0 Decks

Baseline Table House Edge (%)

Total Dedicated Bankroll ($)

Table Minimum Wager ($)

Kelly Allocation Comparison

Quarter Kelly (f*/4) $15 Lowest Volatility

Half Kelly (f*/2) ★ $30 Optimal Stability

Full Kelly (f*) $60 High Drawdown

OUTPUT METRICS INSTANT

CALCULATED TRUE COUNT (TC) +2.0

PLAYER NET ADVANTAGE (μ) +0.50%

RECOMMENDED HALF-KELLY BET $30 2.0 units

TWO-HAND SPREAD ALLOCATION 2 × $25

Schlesinger SCORE Efficacy Index 42.5 Standard Profitable Shoe

Frequently Answered Questions

How does True Count conversion alter player advantage? ▼

In multi-deck shoes, each unit of positive True Count shifts the mathematical expectation approximately +0.50% in the player's favor. At TC +1 the game breaks even, and at TC +3 the player holds an approximate +1.0% advantage.

Why is Half-Kelly recommended over Full-Kelly? ▼

Full-Kelly betting generates extreme bankroll volatility with a 13.5% lifetime Risk of Ruin. Half-Kelly captures 75% of maximum geometric growth while slashing variance by 50% and compressing ruin risk below 1.8%.

Why should players spread to two hands at peak True Counts? ▼

Because adjacent hands against the same dealer upcard share a covariance of r ≈ 0.50. Wagering 75% of the target bet on two separate spots increases hourly dollar earnings by 33% without increasing total risk.